Future Scenarios: Energy & Economy

What does the future hold when it comes to energy and economy? Continued growth for both, or inevitable decline? With a world economy and energy environment at a critical crossroads, what scenarios are most likely to unfold? And what can you and I do to create a sustainable future? These were the questions on the table during a free-ranging discussion amongst a diverse panel of energy, economic, and environmental experts. On September 29, 2009, they met at an Audubon-hosted event to share their answers. Check out their visionary scenarios and creative solutions via these videos, and listen to the lively Q&A that followed at the Kimberlin Nature Education Center at Audubon Greenwich in Connecticut.


  Bill Baue, Moderator BILL BAUE: MODERATOR
Co-Director Sea Change Media, Co-Host/Producer, /Sea Change Radio
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Cary Krosinsky photo CARY KROSINSKY
Vice President, Trucost; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University CERC, Sustainability & Investing
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  Chris Martenson photo CHRIS MARTENSON
Independent economic analyst who created the Crash Course DVD series; Post Institute Fellow
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Libby Cheney photo LIBBY CHENEY
Vice President, Environment and Sustainable Development,
Shell Upstream Americas

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  Click to play Bill Baue video   Libby Cheney Video   Cary Krosinsky Video
Moderator Bill Baue of Sea Change Media frames the discussion by defining scenarios, and setting forth four future scenarios proposed by permaculture
co-founder David Holmgren in his 2008 book, Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change.
Libby Cheney, Shell's top executive for sustainability in the Americas, describes Shell¹s Energy Scenarios to 2050 report, which proposes two plausible futures: Scramble, characterized by national self-interest, and Blueprints, characterized by global cooperation. Cary Krosinsky, North American Vice President of the environmental
investment research firm Trucost and Co-Editor of the book Sustainable Investing, presents research on how carbon will impact investment portfolios when cap-and-trade systems come into play.
Chris Martenson video Complete forum podcast Forum Q and A podcast

Chris Martenson, a Post Carbon Institute Fellow who created the Crash,
explains how net energy (what¹s available for use after extraction) is declining toward an ³energy cliff² where we won¹t have sufficient energy to fuel our modern lifestyles.  He cautions that if we don¹t pursue solutions to this problem, it will soon become a predicament with uncontrollable outcomes.

hear the complete presentations from Moderator Bill Baue and Panelists Libby Cheney, Cary Krosinsky, and Chris Martenson in this podcast. The videos edited out over 5 minutes of each presentation, as well as the question Baue posed to each panelist after their presentation. So, to get the full scoop, listen here. 61 minutes.   A fascinating question-and-answer session followed the presentations. Questions came from audience members representing the investment, consulting, academic, and NGO communities. 47 minutes.


To learn more about energy demand, use, conservation and policy, we invite you to view the following resources, recommended by Audubon magazine, our forum panelists, and forum Sponsor, Shell.




Get Down: CO2 capture and storage
Audubon Magazine, May/June 2009 Issue. Instead of pumping billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere, we might start putting them back where they came from: under-ground.

Clean Break: Feed-in tarrifs
Audubon Magazine, March/April 2009 Issue. A new approach called feed-in tariffs could offer the best, and quickest, solution to global warming. Learn how these tariffs work.


Slick Promise: Oil Shale
Audubon Magazine, March/April 2009 Issue. Oil shale is an energy developer’s dream: a plentiful rock that can be turned into billions of barrels of oil. But is it truly the Holy Grail, or fool’s gold?

Audubon Oil Shale Video


Viewpoint: The Low-Carbon Diet
Audubon Magazine, January/February 2009 Issue. Change your lightbulbs? Or your car? If you want to fight global warming, it’s time to consider a different diet.

Charge! Automotive energy efficiency
Audubon Magazine, September/October 2009 Issue.
The push to make cars more energy efficient and less polluting is driving the automobile industry in a whole new direction.




The New Energy Future
The new energy future will need diverse energy sources to meet rising demand. Managing emissions and better energy use will help safeguard the environment and conserve resources. New energy sources and getting more from existing resources will secure energy for decades to come.

Shell EnergyTalk: Join the Conversation
An interactive site that invites you to take part in the conversation about securing, developing and managing energy for the future.  Take part now!

Shell Scenarios: Energy and the Planet
‘More energy, less carbon dioxide.’ It’s humanity’s biggest challenge today. What are the right choices? When do we need to make them? What happens if we don’t?’

Shell Scenarios Movie


The race is on to create a new world of energy
The Times, England, OPED:
Jeroen van der Veer, former Chief Executive of Royal Dutch Shell plc, writes about a new world of energy.

David Hone Climate Change blog:
David is Shell’s Climate Change Advisor. Visit his blog to learn climate change, what it means, and what to do about it and how it affects our quest for more energy.

Balancing Global Resources
Malcolm Brinded, Executive Director Exploration & Production, discusses what oil and gas companies can do to promote a gradual transformation of the global energy system at the European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers (EAGE), Amsterdam, June 8, 2009.

Changing Fortunes: Global Energy
Speech given by Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell plc, at the Spruce Meadows Economic Round Table in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. September 11, 2009.


Energy transition: not for the faint-hearted
Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell plc, writes in a web-exclusive commentary for the Canadian newspaper Globe and Mail that it will take both innovation and patience to change the energy game. September 17, 2009

The energy company of the future
Speech given by Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell, at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington D.C. October 8, 2009.

Energy security and climate change - a tough balance
Speech given by Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell plc, at the World Business Forum, New York. October 7, 2009



Sea Change Radio
Sea Change is forum moderator Bill Baue’s nationally syndicated weekly radio show and podcast, covering the shift to social, environmental, and economic sustainability.

Future Scenarios by David Holmgrem (book)
How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change

Sea Change Media



Trucost's Published Research
Trucost regularly publishes research on important environmental issues that impact companies and fund managers. Details of, and free access to, this research are available here.

Sustainable Investing, The Art of Long Term Performance (book)
Edited by Cary Krosinsky and Nick Robins. Written by international leaders in SRI, ethical and sustainable investment from Wall Street and the City, this accessible, fast-moving, information-packed book covers the full breadth and depth of sustainable investment.




Chris Martenson
Chris Martenson believes the next twenty years are going to look very different from the last twenty years. This site is his attempt to explain why, and build understanding so that effective solutions can be created and promoted.

The Crash Course (DVD Series)
The Crash Course is a video seminar on how our economy, energy systems, and environment interact, and how they will impact the future.

    dividing rule

Audubon Magazine is proud to host a free-ranging discussion among expert panelists. Information and ideas presented will be theirs and will not necessarily reflect Audubon policies or endorsement.


Sea Change Media
Sea Change Media makes connections advancing the shift to sustainability. The non-profit produces Sea Change Radio, a nationally-syndicated show and global podcast. Sea Change also produces sustainability related content for Harvard’s Corporate Social ResponsibilityInitiative, the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility, and CSRwire.com.www.cchange.net, seachangemedia.org



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